France and the UK have floated the idea to send troops on the ground as a guarantee after a potential peace deal. However, so far, not many countries appear to be on board.
France and the UK have floated the idea of developing a “coalition of the willing” to enforce any peace deal in Ukraine at a summit in London on Sunday.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the coalition as a group of countries “ready to support Ukraine with troops on the ground and planes in the air, working with others”.
However the mandate of these troops — as well as how many would be required — isn’t yet clear.
Philippe Perchoc, Director of IRSEM Europe (the Strategic Research Institute at the Ecole Militaire), told Euronews that the concept opens up a list of questions.
“Does this mean sending troops to western Ukraine to free Ukrainian soldiers from western Ukraine to go to the front? Is that peacekeeping? They are two different things,” Perchoc noted.
“In this case, peacekeeping means peacekeeping troops positioned at the front to prevent fighting. So it’s a lot of different things,” he told Euronews.
Experts estimate that several thousand soldiers would be needed to provide a credible guarantee of peacekeeping.
“Let’s say an army corps of 50,000 soldiers, to send a clear message to Russia: we are very serious about this,” Sven Biscop of the Brussels-based Egmont Institute told Euronews.
Even with a clear definition of the concept, countries across Europe have expressed different opinions on whether they would indeed be willing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine.
Hesitant countries
Some European countries seem to agree to the Franco-British initiative but are yet to speak up on the notion of deploying soldiers on the ground.
Portugal for example, has assurred full support for the plan that will be defined by the UK and France, but Lisbon considers it is still too early to consider sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping operation.
“The sending of national forces must have the backing of the National Defence Superior Council,” which will convene on the 17th of March, said President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof stated that he has not made any concrete commitments on behalf of his country, but also gave assurances that the Netherlands would join French and British military planners in drafting possible solutions.
Spain could also be onboard, but at a later stage. The Spanish foreign minister José Manuel Albares gave assurances that the country “has no problem” with sending troops abroad, but at the moment in Ukraine “the effort is still primarily political and diplomatic”. That seems backed by domestic public opinion: 81.7% of Spaniards are in favour of sending soldiers as a peacekeeping force to Ukraine, according to a poll conducted by the television channel “La Sexta”.
Ireland’s government spokesperson said there’s been a willingness to discuss the topic and Dublin will consider it, while stating that it’s not the right moment to do so. “We’re not at the point of talking about a negotiated peace yet, so it’s premature to speculate in which context peacekeepers would actually be deployed,” the spokesperson told Euronews.
ADVERTISEMENTItaly and Poland: the sceptics
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is among the most sceptical leaders. “I am still perplexed about the use of European troops. I see this as a solution that risks proving very complicated and probably less decisive than others,” she told journalists after the London meeting, underlining that “deployment of Italian troops has never been on the table at this stage”.
In her view, the best option to offer security guarantees to Ukraine is to involve NATO’s Article 5 on collective defence in some way, which commits the alliance’s members to protect each other in the event of an attack.
How to deploy this when Ukraine is not a member of NATO remains unclear however, so Meloni’s suggestion remains blue-sky thinking at this stage.
Despite being among the strongest supporters of Ukraine since the invasion, Poland remains very firmly opposed to sending any troops to Ukraine.
ADVERTISEMENTPrime Minister Donald Tusk has said that the country has already taken a heavy burden by accepting almost two million refugees from Ukraine in the first weeks of the war.
Warsaw will provide support in terms of logistics and political support, but no boots on the ground it seems.
Totally unwilling – Hungary and Slovakia
Hungary and Slovakia have been the most critical countries on the EU military support to Ukraine and most in favour of opening dialogue with Russia to end the war.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused European leaders gathered in London of wanting “to go on with the war instead of opting for peace”.
ADVERTISEMENTThe Slovakian Prime Minister expressed reservations about the strategy of “peace through strength”, which he considers “a justification for continuing the war in Ukraine”.
It’s therefore unlikely that the Hungarian and Slovak governments would participate in any initiative, with the notion of sending their troops out of the question.
Where does Germany stand?
All eyes are now on Germany, where a new government is being formed, headed by the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz.
Current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ruled out sending German troops to Ukraine, although his Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has hinted that peacekeeping forces could be stationed in a demilitarised zone in the event of a ceasefire.
ADVERTISEMENTThis position could change, however, even if the decision to deploy German soldiers in Ukraine may prove difficult to sell to domestic public opinion.
The German parliament needs to approve any foreign deployment of the national army (known as the Bundeswehr) beforehand to determine details – what the role of the troops would be, which other countries would be involved – Scholz’s spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit explained during a press conference.
As Germany is in the process of forming a new coalition government, voting on such a topic is unlikely to take place soon, and it seems too early for such decisions.
Security expert at European Council on Foreign Relations, Rafael Loss, told Euronews that “discussions about European military deployments to Ukraine are at a very early stage. The London meeting clarified that Europeans would also seek US backing for any such plan and a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine before committing troops.”
ADVERTISEMENTShona Murray, Cynthia Kroet and Alice Tidey from Brussels, Liv Stroud from Berlin, Cristian Caraballo from Madrid, Joana Maria Ribeiro Mourao Carvalho from Lisbon, Agnieszka Laskowska from Warsaw and Ferenc Szekely from Budapest contributed to this reporting.
