By most measures, Democrats’ chances to take Michigan, a must-win, upper midwest swing state, were rapidly dwindling two weeks ago. Polling released that day showed Joe Biden down seven points, and perhaps insurmountably ceding ground to Donald Trump among key blocs.
Then everything changed.
Biden stepped aside and Kamala Harris stepped in, almost immediately recharging an increasingly demoralized base while boosting Democratic chances with independents here, political observers say.
Most importantly, the US vice-president appears to be quickly reinvigorating a coalition of five constituencies that has propelled Democrats to wins over the Trump GOP in all major elections in Michigan post-2016, but which had frayed during the Biden campaign.
That’s generating fresh hope among Democrats, and the coalition’s power may be reflected in the first bits of swing state Harris-era polling that found her in a dead heat with Trump.
“People are excited, and we are energized,” said Jerry Hebron, who runs an urban farm in Detroit. “We’re thinking about how we can get engaged, help to get people to vote, to knock on doors and things like that.”
Michigan is a political prize that has voted for the presidential winner in the last four national elections. Powered by the coalition of Black voters, white suburban independents, young voters, Arab American voters and strong Macomb county showings, Democrats swept the 2018 midterms, and Biden took Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020. In state elections two years later, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer defeated a Trump-backed candidate and Democrats took full control for the first time in 45 years.
The re-energized coalition “gives Harris an immediate bump”, said Bill Belanger, a conservative-leaning state political analyst.
“All of those groups except Macomb county are helped by Harris’s candidacy as opposed to Biden,” he said, but sustaining her momentum “depends on which kind of candidate she turns into”, Bellanger added, suggesting she may be perceived as too liberal.
Suburban independents and moderate Republicans
Questions about Biden’s mental fitness repelled many in this group in wealthier Detroit suburbs and western Michigan who turned out for the president in relatively large numbers in 2020.
But recent history suggests they are also turned off by the Trump GOP: Whitmer won independents by double digits in recent state elections against a Trump-backed candidate, including by 23 points in Oakland county, a suburban battleground that until recently leaned GOP.
Harris is stronger than 2024 Biden among this group, in large part because of independent and moderate women concerned about abortion who also drove the 2022 Democratic wave, said pollster Bernie Porn.
His polling puts abortion as the third most important issue among all state voters, but much higher among independent and Democratic women, and Biden struggled on abortion messaging.
While the president polled just 2% ahead of Trump on Sunday in Michigan, a Thursday poll showed a 52-40 Harris advantage.
Meanwhile, Robert F Kennedy Jr polled at about 18% with independents, and Harris can likely peel off some of his support, Porn said.
“Harris will run up the scoreboard because she’s a woman that’s very energizing, especially in Michigan, which is already led by a strong woman,” said a Democratic operative with experience in Michigan campaigns.
Black voters
In Detroit, , Whitmer won 95% of the Detroit vote in the midterms, and Biden did similarly well in his first campaign. But polling showed the president’s support dipped as low as 54% among Black voters statewide this year.
Harris, who would be the nation’s first Black woman to win the presidency, saw an 8% jump in support among Black voters nationally in this week’s polls compared to Biden.
In Detroit, Hebron, who is Black, said she isn’t aware of support for Trump, and the Democratic operative said the 54% could be read as Black voter hesitancy over Biden, not Trump support.
With Harris at the top of the ticket, “they are coming home,” the operative said.
Arab American and uncommitted voters
Over 100,000 people voted “uncommitted” in the 2024 Michigan primary as a protest to the Biden administration’s Gaza policy. Meanwhile, Porn’s polling has found nearly 80% of state Democrats support a ceasefire.
Related: Republicans’ social conservatism wins over some Arab Americans
Still, tension between some state Democratic leadership and this group persists. During Democrats’ Wednesday Harris endorsement call, Abbas Alawieh, a former congressional staffer representing Michigan’s uncommitted delegates, said he offered brief comments outlining the voters’ concerns.
He was quickly interrupted: “Shut up, asshole,” said the Livingston county democratic organization chair. Michigan Democratic party chair Lavora Barnes later sent an email to the group calling the interruption inappropriate.
Alawieh said he was doing his duty as a delegate.
“Uncommitteds are being extremely reasonable and just asking for an update on the policy because the policy is mass killing of people we love,” he said, adding that he frustrated by some in the party treating Arab American voters as a problem.
Alawieh said he is hopeful that will change, and the uncommitted campaign has requested a meeting with Harris.
“There’s a real curiosity to see whether or not Vice-President Harris will seek to turn the page on Gaza policy,” Alawieh said. “There was also a deep sigh of relief that the candidate is no longer President Biden because people feel so deeply betrayed by him.”
Macomb county prospects
Some observers say Harris may struggle in Macomb county, the largely white, working-class, Obama-to-Biden swing county that has received outsized attention for propelling Donald Trump to office in 2016.
Biden only received 45% of the vote in Macomb in 2020, but Whitmer won here 52-47 during state elections.
Moreover, the county is a union stronghold, and Biden’s support plummeted about 13 points among union members since 2020, Porn noted. That’s in part because Trump has won the messaging war on electric vehicles, which are unpopular among union members, he said.
Like Biden, Harris may not win the county, but may do well enough to win the state, observers say.
Young voters
Exit polls in 2020 showed Biden won 62% of young voters, while his approval among the group polled at just 15% in Michigan this year. A spate of national polls already shows Harris’s support among young people shooting far beyond Biden levels.
In Detroit, Hebron, a self-described elder, sees “a whole ’nother generation of voters who are now excited”. Meanwhile, the Democratic operative noted Harris went viral on TikTok on Sunday night as memes “showing her having a good time” proliferated and organically generated excitement among young people.
Related: Kamala Harris memes are all over the internet. Will tweets and TikToks turn into votes?
“That enthusiasm is not something that can be manufactured,” the operative said.
It is part of the broader enthusiasm shift. The entire state party is motivated, said Michigan pollster Ed Sarpolus with Target-Insyght.
“No one is hiding in the bushes anymore, everyone is jumping on the bandwagon, and now she has momentum,” Sarpolus said. “They’re saying, ‘Now we have a reason to vote.’”
