On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron named Michel Barnier as the country’s new Prime minister. But will “Monsieur Brexit” be able to resolve France’s political deadlock?
After a seven-week wait, Michel Barnier, the European Union’s Brexit negotiator and a veteran of the traditional right-wing party The Republicans (LR), was appointed as France’s new premier.
Barnier now faces the complicated task of forming a government and surviving a confidence vote in parliament, currently divided into three blocs since Macron called for snap parliamentary elections in July.
Although other potential candidate names were circulating these past days, by choosing the conservative figure, Macron wanted to ensure the far-right National Rally party (RN) wasn’t going to immediately vote against a Barnier-led government.
The National Rally has 126 MPs (not counting the 16 MPs from Eric Ciotti’s rebellious right-wing faction that recently allied with Le Pen), making it the third political force in Parliament.
The Presidential camp has 166 MPs and the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) has 193. The absolute majority is 289 seats.
Since the NFP already claimed they would vote against any Prime Minister outside of their ranks, Macron had to find a person who could appease the far-right.
“The choice of Barnier is the result of a political calculation that takes into account the choice of National Rally – Barnier is a compromise candidate,” explains Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, a Professor of Political Communication at Sciences-Po University.
“He’s someone who will suit the far-right and who might be able to work out compromises with the left because he’s an expert negotiator,” said Moreau-Chevrolet in an interview with Euronews.
When Barnier’s name was announced, the leader of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, said her party would wait to examine his programme first.
“Michel Barnier seems to meet at least the first criterion we asked for, i.e. someone who is respectful of the different political forces and capable of addressing the RN,” she said in an interview reposted on X, former Twitter.
But this leaves some experts and MPs within the presidential camp wondering why Macron’s party insisted on blocking the rise of the far-right by uniting with other parties (known as a republican front) during the parliamentary elections… to end up opening the door to the same party they vilified for months.
“For weeks, they called on the republican front and then ended up making compromises with the National Rally. It’s a bit of a denial of democracy,” quipped Virginie Martin, a political scientist and professor at KEDGE Business School.
A Prime minister unlikely to rock the boat
In addition to possibly surviving a confidence vote in parliament, Barnier’s profile isn’t considered a threat within the presidential camp.
Barnier is unlikely to repeal Macron’s key reforms like the controversial pension plan or reverse the asylum-immigration law as the left-wing coalition claimed they would if nominated.
“Barnier allows the continuity of Macron’s right-wing policies. Obviously, it also gives Macron the power to impose his picks for the future ministers,” said Moreau-Chevrolet.
ADVERTISEMENT“The choice gives a lot of power to the presidential camp and the conservative right-wing party The Republicans (LR). They are the main winners in this affair,” said Virginie Martin.
73-year-old Barnier is the oldest-serving Prime minister in France’s modern political history.
His age means he will not rival those within Macron’s camp who are preparing for the upcoming 2027 presidential election.
A reassuring profile for Brussels
Twice EU commissioner and architect of the Brexit accords, Barnier knows his way around the Brussels machinery unlike anyone else.
ADVERTISEMENT“His strong sense of compromise and expertise, especially in the financial realm make him a reassuring Prime minister in the eyes of EU institutions and member states,” said Thierry Chopin, special advisor to the Jacques Delors Institute and a Visiting Professor at the College of Europe.
If Barnier’s government survives the confidence vote, he will need to get straight to work.
First, France must submit its proposals to slash public spending to the EU by 20 September, though that deadline can be extended until October.
To comply with EU rules, France would need to make cuts of at least €30 billion in 2025.
ADVERTISEMENTThen, a draft of the national budget for 2025 is due to be presented to Parliament on 1 October, at a time when the country’s public finances are in dire straits.
“Barnier comes from the conservative right, which emphasises the need to cut public spending and rebalance the country’s budget. His profile could reassure German and Dutch partners, who tend to monitor closely budgetary issues within the EU bloc,” said Chopin.
