Sam Darnold was very likely to start Week 1 for the Minnesota Vikings no matter what happened this month. The team seemed set on having first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy sit and learn.
But we all know how that often goes. If the rookie plays well in preseason — McCarthy looked very sharp in his NFL preseason debut last week — then the drumbeat to make the change will go on through every mistake the veteran makes. It was going to happen to Darnold unless he played at a very high level.
There’s no real upside to McCarthy’s knee surgery, but it means that Darnold doesn’t need to look over his shoulder. The Vikings said McCarthy underwent a full meniscus repair and will miss all of his rookie season.
This is Darnold’s chance to establish himself as an NFL starting quarterback. If he doesn’t take advantage, he might not get another opportunity. At least not another one this good.
J.J. McCarthy will miss the season
McCarthy suffered the season-ending injury during Saturday’s preseason game. He finished despite the injury, which O’Connell commended.
When the Vikings examined McCarthy further on Monday, they determined it was a meniscus injury. The surgery gave the Vikings the worst-case scenario. Their first-round rookie was done for the season.
“What’s best for the long-term health of J.J. McCarthy will be the priority,” O’Connell said when McCarthy’s injury was announced.
There’s no more doubt it’s Darnold’s job this season, unless he falls completely flat and loses it. Nobody wanted a McCarthy injury, but it’s a good situation for Darnold to be in.
Sam Darnold gets a great opportunity
A lot has been made of Caleb Williams stepping into a good situation with the Chicago Bears. Not enough was made of the situation McCarthy was going to eventually be in this season. Now Darnold gets a full season in a positive environment.
Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the NFL, if not the best. Jordan Addison had a productive rookie season, and although he could face a suspension for an offseason arrest, it could be a while until the NFL rules on that. T.J. Hockenson will return from a torn ACL and he’s one of the best tight ends in the NFL. The running game has been upgraded. O’Connell is a very good coach.
Every other time Darnold has gotten a shot to start, it has been in a much worse situation. He was the third overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft by the New York Jets, and the Jets were a poor situation in just about every way for a young quarterback. He had three bad seasons and the Jets moved on.
Darnold got 17 starts for the 2021-22 Carolina Panthers, and that situation wasn’t much better. The first time Darnold had a good coaching staff with great teammates was last season with the San Francisco 49ers, and he was the team’s backup for all but one game.
We’re about to answer a “nature vs. nurture” question with Darnold. Is he fully responsible for his far below-average 78.3 career passer rating, or can he thrive in his seventh season with a good environment around him? The Vikings are set up pretty well to maximize the talents of any quarterback.
Darnold wouldn’t be the first quarterback, or even the first highly drafted Jets quarterback, to look like a lost cause only to get in a better situation and have a good season. But it’s also unlikely that another team would have Darnold as its preferred starter if he doesn’t play well this season.
The story from the Vikings this week was that McCarthy, the 10th pick of the draft, will miss his rookie season. The other story is that another top-10 quarterback is getting a big chance to revive his career.
