Who ya got in the Kentucky Derby?
As post time approaches for Saturday’s 150th Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs, casual fans and hard-core handicappers will be crunching the numbers before making their bets.
Florida Derby winner Fierceness is the morning-line favorite at 5-2 odds, and Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone is the second choice at 3-1.
But as Rich Strike showed in 2022 — winning at 80-1 odds — anything can happen on the first Saturday in May.
With that in mind, The Courier Journal offers its annual breakdown of why each horse can and can’t win the Kentucky Derby — many serious, a few tongue in cheek, one destined to be right.
Click on a horse’s name to learn more:
Why he can win: He has early speed, and jockey Luis Saez will be forced to go early from the 1 hole. Maybe he takes the lead entering the first turn and never gives it up.
Why he can’t win: Based on his Beyer Speed Figures, he hasn’t been as good this year as he was as a 2-year-old. He may have to use too much at the start to avoid getting crushed out of the gate.
Why he can win: This $2.3 million horse is a nose away from being undefeated in four career starts. If anyone can navigate the traffic he’s likely to face as a deep closer, it’s jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
Why he can’t win: There are so many variables that have to go Sierra Leone’s way, as he’ll likely have to pass 17 or 18 horses to win. Do you trust he’ll be able to do that?
Why he can win: Maybe it rains and he can repeat his stellar performance from the Southwest, when he romped by 8 lengths over a muddy track and posted a career-best 101 Beyer.
Why he can’t win: His performances on fast tracks don’t indicate he can match up with the best in this field.
Why he can win: That Louisiana Derby victory was sneaky good, and this colt has improved his Beyer figures in every race. If that trend continues, look out.
Why he can’t win: Much like Sierra Leone, he’s a late runner who will need a near-perfect setup. Is there reason to believe he can handle the late-closer role better than Sierra Leone?
Why he can win: Lightly raced colt was “best of the rest” in Florida Derby, 13 ½ lengths behind Fierceness. The No. 5 post has produced the most Derby winners (10) since 1930.
Why he can’t win: Finishing 13 ½ lengths behind the winner in his last race is a dubious distinction, at best. Hard to see him making up that much ground this time.
Why he can win: He’s always in the mix, finishing among the top three in five of his last six races. Posted a career-best 95 Beyer in the Arkansas Derby and could be moving forward.
Why he can’t win: He’s raced 11 times in his career, most of any horse in the current starting gate. Is it possible he’s out of gas?
Why he can win: He’s bred to run all day and took a big step forward in the Louisiana Derby. He won twice at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old.
Why he can’t win: He appears to be entering “wise-guy pick” status, and the “wise-guy pick” never wins.
Why he can win: Maybe he’s the next Mage — unraced as a 2-year-old, runner-up in final prep race and wins the Derby in his fourth career start. Could be sitting on a huge race.
Why he can’t win: That lack of experience could cost him. Had the lead turning for home in the Blue Grass before Sierra Leone blitzed by.
Why he can win: Well, in two lifetime starts, he’s never lost. Figures to vie for the lead early and see how far he can go.
Why he can’t win: Leonatus (1883) is the only horse to win the Kentucky Derby with just two career starts before the race.
Why he can win: He’s 5 for 5, and many believe he’s the best colt Japan has sent to the Kentucky Derby. Maybe this is the year Japan gets its first Derby victory.
Why he can’t win: UAE Derby winners are 0 for 19 all time in the Kentucky Derby and never have finished better than fifth. That’s quite a bit of history to overcome.
Why he can win: He’ll be near the front early, and trainer Steve Asmussen is adding blinkers with hopes that will help Track Phantom take a step forward.
Why he can’t win: Had the lead turning for home in his last two races and couldn’t hang on. Looks to have distance limitations.
Why he can win: There’s not a better story in this Derby than trainer Larry Demeritte, the Bahamas native who’s battling cancer. Maybe the “Derby gods” will shine down on him.
Why he can’t win: His best Beyer speed figure (85) came on a synthetic track and is the slowest of any horse in the race.
Why he can win: Throw out last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and this horse is undefeated in five career starts. He clearly knows how to win, and his Beyer figures are on an uptick.
Why he can’t win: When a trainer tells you he preferred to run in another race on Derby Day, listen to him. He’s never raced on a dirt track.
Why he can win: Well-rested since winning the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. Adds a top-notch jockey in Irad Ortiz Jr.
Why he can’t win: Rest or rust? That eight-week layoff since the Tampa Bay Derby raises some questions. He’ll need to take a big step forward to contend with the best here.
Why he can win: Perhaps he can earn some redemption for his sire, Uncle Mo, who would have been the Derby favorite in 2011 but had to scratch because of an illness.
Why he can’t win: Four straight third-place finishes don’t inspire confidence.
Why he can win: He’s the fastest horse, and if he runs back anywhere close to his Florida Derby form no one is going to beat him. Owner Mike Repole is due some Derby luck.
Why he can’t win: Good race, bad race, good race, bad race, good race. He’s due a bad race.
Why he can win: Might be getting overlooked here. He’s never been worse than second in six career starts and beat a top Bob Baffert horse (Imagination) to win the Santa Anita Derby.
Why he can’t win: His speed numbers just don’t match up with the best, and that No. 17 post won’t do him any favors.
Why he can win: Distance doesn’t appear to be an issue, and he’s improved in every start of his career. Could surprise with another step forward.
Why he can’t win: The Wood Memorial hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003. Losing jockey John Velazquez to Fierceness doesn’t help.
Why he can win: He’s continued to move forward and shockingly finished second in the Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds. Maybe jockey Frankie Dettori can work some magic?
Why he can’t win: There’s a reason he was 106-1 in his last race. Wasn’t close to winning in either of his graded-stakes runs.
Why he can win: Turfway Park specialist was a respectable third in the Blue Grass, his debut on dirt. Beyer speed numbers are trending in the right direction.
Why he can’t win: Wants to be near the front early but hard to see him hanging with the more accomplished horses in this field.
22. Mugatu (Also eligible)
Why he can win: Because you believe in miracles?
Why he can’t win: Hasn’t finished in the top two in any of his last seven races. Might be 100-1 odds if he draws in.
More Kentucky Derby: Check out the winners and losers from Saturday night’s draw
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: 2024 Kentucky Derby horses explained
